[SMM Analysis] SMM Lithium Ore Price Review This Week

July lithium hydroxide output edged up sequentially, remaining broadly flat; August is expected to see a mild pullback.

[SMM Analysis] Before the deadline of US S232 settlement, Offshore market remains silent.

The immediate catalyst for the futures rally stems from supply concerns over mining license compliance issues in Jiangxi. Market sources indicate eight lithium mines in Jiangxi face rectification orders for environmental and licensing violations, with one major mine's license set to expire in early August under uncertain renewal prospects. Should renewal fail, this could force a temporary suspension, potentially cutting monthly supply by 10,000 LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent).

[SMM Analysis:Copper Consumption in New Energy Vehicles H1 2025] On July 16, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing:January-June 2025 NEV production reached 6.968 million units, representing a 41.4% year-on-year increase.According to SMM estimates, full-year 2025 NEV production is forecast at 16.29 million units, with second-half production expected to reach 9.32 million units.

Ghana's government is preparing to renegotiate terms of the Ewoyaa lithium mining agreement after a precipitous drop in global lithium prices has jeopardized the project's economic feasibility.

Initial assays from the HCK joint venture project, announced on July 10, revealed a 6.9-meter lithium-rich intercept at 174.6 meters depth (drill hole MWOG0002), averaging 2.11% Li₂O with a high-grade 3.45-meter zone grading 3.20% Li₂O.

[SMM Analysis:It Was Like Turning the Tide When All Hope Seemed Lost ] On the morning of June 27, 2025, China’s leading smelting companies concluded a landmark negotiation that will go down in the history of the copper industry: The mid-year TC/RC settlement between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters was finalized at $0.0/dmt and 0.0 cents/lb.

[SMM Analysis]Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's chief trade negotiator, emphasized that Japan could not accept the US's imposition of a 25% tariff on imported cars. He pointed out that Japanese automakers produced approximately 3.3 million units in the US annually, significantly exceeding the 1.37 million cars they exported to the US. In addition, these Japanese automakers have invested over $60 billion in the US and created 2.3 million local jobs.

[SMM Analysis: It's Like Turning the Tide Back] In the past three years, when China's smelters have been concentrating on commissioning their smelting capacity, the mid-year and year-end negotiations between China's smelters and Antofagasta have been particularly challenging. Since the end of last month, Antofagasta has consistently maintained a -$15 offer for the mid-year negotiations with China's smelters from the first round to the third round, refusing to make any concessions. Miners are confident in the production resilience of China's smelters and the diminishing expectations for production cuts, so they refuse to make any concessions. China's smelters have risen to the challenge, and under the rational arguments of the two leading smelters involved in the negotiations, one of the leading smelters eventually took the lead in reaching a $0 agreement with Antofagasta this morning without making any concessions on other terms, with other participating Chinese smelters following suit. Previously, there had been an abundance of pessimistic market expectations, with bearish and production cut sentiments echoing. Given that miners had insisted on a -$15 offer through multiple rounds, the market generally expected that China's smelters would have to compromise on negative numbers and be forced to enter an era of negative long-term contracts. Judging from the results, this negotiation is akin to turning the tide back and preventing a collapse.

Under the terms of the deal, Rock Tech will supply battery-grade lithium hydroxide from its forthcoming refinery in Guben, Germany, to Ronbay's cathode manufacturing facility in Konin, Poland. This vertical integration creates a seamless supply chain that reduces reliance on imports and shortens delivery times for European battery manufacturers.